@article{189601,
  keywords = {Supreme Court, Donal Trump, Appointments, Conservative Supermajority},
  author = {Charles Cameron and Jonathan P. Kastellec},
  title = {The Supreme Court: How Did We Get Here? And, What Comes Next?},
  abstract = {<p>How have the politics of appointments transformed the United States Supreme Court? In this paper, we examine the past and future of the Supreme Court and the current conservative supermajority on the Court, with a particular focus on how this Court stands out from earlier courts. In particular, we trace the factors that allowed President Trump to reshape the Court with his three appointments in his first term. We also evaluate the importance of the conservative supermajority by connecting it to two important theories of collective decision making on the Court. We then show that the current court is a culmination of a {\textquotedblleft}partisan sort{\textquotedblright} on the Court{\textemdash}a strict correlation between party and ideology{\textemdash}that began a few decades ago but did not crystalize until the 2020s. Finally, we summarize simulations showing that conservatives are likely to control the Court for several decades.</p>},
  year = {2025},
  journal = {Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science},
}